There are two main factors that will decide the outcome of the US Presidential Election and to a lesser degree the control of Congress.
The first issue will be voter turnout. If Progressives, Minorities, Women, Low Income, College-Educated and Independents vote in large numbers, the impact on Donald Trump and the Republicans in Congress will be negative. The poll numbers that support Trump from some of these groups clearly show the truth of that conclusion. 1 % support among Blacks; 15% support of Hispanics and 30% of Women indicate support for Trump. If these groups come out in large numbers to vote, Donald Trump and the Republicans simply cannot win.
The second issue that will determine the winner and looser in November 2016 for President will be the issue of, “do I trust someone like Donald Trump to control the Military Power and the Nuclear Arsenal of the United States?” That question will be on the minds of all Progressives and Independents as well as many Republicans.
The policy issue differences about Taxes, Immigration, Infrastructure Repair, Social Security, Health Care, The Budget and Deficit, The Supreme Court will be on the minds of many Americans. However, these issues will take a back seat to the two issues above in determining who will be the President and who will have the control of the Congress.
The Most Important Lesson From The 2016 Election
If there is one single truth that needs to come out of the 2016 election, it’s the fact that the United States is not principally a conservative country. We listen to Republicans tell us how we must have a conservative Supreme Court, a conservative Congress and a conservative President. The reality is that the majority of Americans are not conservatives and they do not support the conservative agenda on any of the major issues that face our country.
At best the political nature of the United States in 2016 is Center Left. In fact, what we saw from the Bernie Sanders campaign, especially with younger Americans, is that we are moving further to the left. The time has come to begin implementing the progressive ideas that most Americans support. It is not a time to elect conservatives or appoint conservatives to the Supreme Court.